Cost-utility analysis of the use of the 20-valent anti-pneumococcal vaccine (PCV20) in adults older than 60 years in Spain.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: A cost-utility analysis was conducted to assess the efficiency of implementing a PCV20 vaccination strategy in the Spanish adult population older than 60 years, for the prevention of non-bacteremic pneumococcalpneumonia (NBP) and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). METHODS: A Markov model, with annual cycles and a time horizon of 10 years was used. The analysis population was stratified by age and risk groups. The comparator was the sequential vaccination with the 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV15) followed by one dose of the pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23). The base case analysis was performed from the National Healthcare System (NHS) perspective including direct costs (€2018) and applying a discount of 3% to future costs and outcomes. Alternative scenarios explored a shorter time horizon (5 years), the societal perspective and other available vaccination strategies. All the parameters and assumptions were validated by a panel of experts. To evaluate the robustness of the model, deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were carried out. RESULTS: The results of the study showed that the vaccination strategy with PCV20 is a dominant option compared to the sequential regimen (PCV15 + PPSV23), resulting in direct cost savings of €85.7 M over 10 years, with a small increase in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). PCV20 vaccination avoided 2,161 cases of IPD, 19,470 of NBP and 3,396 deaths and according to the PSA, the probability of PCV20 being cost-effective compared to a sequential regimen (PCV15 + PPSV23) was 100%. CONCLUSIONS/RECOMMENDATIONS: In the Spanish adult population older than 60 years, the vaccination strategy with one dose of PCV20 is more effective and less expensive (dominant) than vaccination with a sequential schedule with PCV15 and PPSV23.

The Role of Functional Urban Areas in the Spread of COVID-19 Omicron (Northern Spain).

This study focuses on the space-time patterns of the COVID-19 Omicron wave at a regional scale, using municipal data. We analyze the Basque Country and Cantabria, two adjacent regions in the north of Spain, which between them numbered 491,816 confirmed cases in their 358 municipalities from 15th November 2021 to 31st March 2022. The study seeks to determine the role of functional urban areas (FUAs) in the spread of the Omicron variant of the virus, using ESRI Technology (ArcGIS Pro) and applying intelligence location methods such as 3D-bins and emerging hot spots. Those methods help identify trends and types of problem area, such as hot spots, at municipal level. The results demonstrate that FUAs do not contain an over-concentration of COVID-19 cases, as their location coefficient is under 1.0 in relation to population. Nevertheless, FUAs do have an important role as drivers of spread in the upward curve of the Omicron wave. Significant hot spot patterns are found in 85.0% of FUA area, where 98.9% of FUA cases occur. The distribution of cases shows a spatially stationary linear correlation linked to demographically progressive areas (densely populated, young profile, and with more children per woman) which are well connected by highways and railroads. Based on this research, the proposed GIS methodology can be adapted to other case studies. Considering geo-prevention and WHO Health in All Policies approaches, the research findings reveal spatial patterns that can help policymakers in tackling the pandemic in future waves as society learns to live with the virus.

The effect of altruism on COVID-19 vaccination rates.

BACKGROUND: After the emergence of the first vaccines against the COVID-19, public health authorities have promoted mass vaccination in order to achieve herd immunity and reduce the effects of the disease. Vaccination rates have differed between countries, depending on supply (availability of resources) and demand (altruism and resistance to vaccination) factors. METHODS: This work considers the hypothesis that individuals' health altruism has been an important factor to explain the different levels of vaccination between countries, using the number of transplants as a proxy for altruism. Taking European Union's countries to remove, as far as possible, supply factors that might affect vaccination, we carry out cross-sectional regressions for the most favorable date of the vaccination process (maximum vaccination speed) and for each month during the vaccination campaign. RESULTS: Our findings confirm that altruism has affected vaccination rates against the COVID-19. We find a direct relationship between transplants rates (proxy variable) and vaccination rates during periods in which the decision to be vaccinated depended on the individual's choice, without supply restrictions. The results show that other demand factors have worked against vaccination: political polarization and belonging to the group of countries of the former Eastern bloc. CONCLUSIONS: Altruism is a useful tool to define future vaccination strategies, since it favors the individuals' awareness for vaccination.

Cost of stay and characteristics of patients with stroke and delayed discharge for non-clinical reasons.

Delayed discharge for non-clinical reasons (bed-blocking) is characteristic of pathologies associated with ageing, loss of functional capacity and dependence such as stroke. The aims of this study were to describe the costs and characteristics of cases of patients with stroke and delayed discharge for non-clinical reasons (bed-blocking) compared with cases of bed-blocking (BB) for other reasons and to assess the relationship between the length of total stay (LOS) with patient characteristics and the context of care. A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted at a high complexity public hospital in Northern Spain (2007-2015). 443 stroke patients presented with BB. Delayed discharge increased LOS by approximately one week. The median age was 79.7 years, significantly higher than in cases of BB for other reasons. Patients with stroke and BB are usually older patients, however, when younger patients are affected, their length of stay is longer in relation to the sudden onset of the problem and the lack of adequate functional recovery resources or residential facilities for intermediate care.

Delayed Discharge for Non-Clinical Reasons in Hip Procedures: Differential Characteristics and Opportunity Cost.

Delayed discharge for non-clinical reasons shares common characteristics with hip procedures. We sought to quantify the length of stay and related costs of hip procedures and compare these with other cases of delayed discharge. A cross-sectional study was conducted at a public hospital in Spain (2007-2015) including 306 patients with 6945 days of total stay and 2178 days of prolonged stay. The mean appropriate stay was 15.58 days, and the mean prolonged stay was 7.12 days. The cost of a prolonged stay was €641,002.09. The opportunity cost according to the value of the hospital complexity unit was €922,997.82. The mean diagnostic-related groups' weight was 3.40. Up to 85.29% of patients resided in an urban area near the hospital (p = 0.001), and 83.33% were referred to a long-stay facility for functional recovery (p = 0.001). The proportion of patients with hip procedures and delayed discharge was lower than previous reports; however, their length of stay was longer. The cost of prolonged stay could account for 21.17% of the total. Compared with the remaining cases of delayed discharge, the appropriate stay was shorter in hip procedures, with a profile of older women living in an urban area close to the hospital and referred to a long-stay center for functional recovery.

Differential characteristics of cases of patients diagnosed with pneumonia and delayed discharge for non-clinical reasons in Northern Spain.

BACKGROUND: Delayed discharge for non-clinical reasons is related to a failure to plan for discharge and a lack of availability of intermediate care resources as an alternative to acute hospitalisation. The literature concerning the relationship with pneumonia is scarce. At present, the coronavirus pandemic is a new cause of complicated pneumonias that can further affect the functionality of the most fragile patients. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to understand what characteristics are typical of patients affected by pneumonia, compared with other cases of delayed discharge. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted. All cases of delayed discharge were studied at the hospitalisation units of a general university hospital in Northern Spain from 2007 to 2015. In order to compare the differential characteristics of the groups of patients with pneumonia with the total Student's T-test and Pearson's chi-square test (χ²) were used. RESULTS: 170 patients were identified with a diagnosis of pneumonia and delayed discharge for non-clinical reasons during the study period. These cases accumulated a total of 4790 days of total stay, of which 1294 days corresponded to the prolonged stay. The mean age of the patients was 80.23 years. The mean DRG weight was 2.28 [SD 0.579], and 14.12% of patients with pneumonia and delayed discharge died. So, patients with pneumonia were older (P = .001), less complex (P = .001) and suffered greater deaths compared with the remaining patients (P = .001). CONCLUSIONS: The sum of these factors has to do with comorbidities and complications associated with ageing and the characteristics of conditions such as aspiration pneumonia.

Facing a Second Wave from a Regional View: Spatial Patterns of COVID-19 as a Key Determinant for Public Health and Geoprevention Plans.

Several studies on spatial patterns of COVID-19 show huge differences depending on the country or region under study, although there is some agreement that socioeconomic factors affect these phenomena. The aim of this paper is to increase the knowledge of the socio-spatial behavior of coronavirus and implementing a geospatial methodology and digital system called SITAR (Fast Action Territorial Information System, by its Spanish acronym). We analyze as a study case a region of Spain called Cantabria, geocoding a daily series of microdata coronavirus records provided by the health authorities (Government of Cantabria-Spain) with the permission of Medicines Ethics Committee from Cantabria (CEIm, June 2020). Geocoding allows us to provide a new point layer based on the microdata table that includes cases with a positive result in a COVID-19 test. Regarding general methodology, our research is based on Geographical Information Technologies using Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) Technologies. This tool is a global reference for spatial COVID-19 research, probably due to the world-renowned COVID-19 dashboard implemented by the Johns Hopkins University team. In our analysis, we found that the spatial distribution of COVID-19 in urban locations presents a not random distribution with clustered patterns and density matters in the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, large metropolitan areas or districts with a higher number of persons tightly linked together through economic, social, and commuting relationships are the most vulnerable to pandemic outbreaks, particularly in our case study. Furthermore, public health and geoprevention plans should avoid the idea of economic or territorial stigmatizations. We hold the idea that SITAR in particular and Geographic Information Technologies in general contribute to strategic spatial information and relevant results with a necessary multi-scalar perspective to control the pandemic.

Who can go back to work when the COVID-19 pandemic remits?

This paper seeks to determine which workers affected by lockdown measures can return to work when a government decides to apply lockdown exit strategies. This system, which we call Sequential Selective Multidimensional Decision (SSMD), involves deciding sequentially, by geographical areas, sectors of activity, age groups and immunity, which workers can return to work at a given time according to the epidemiological criteria of the country as well as that of a group of reference countries, used as a benchmark, that have suffered a lower level of lockdown de-escalation strategies. We apply SSMD to Spain, based on affiliation to the Social Security system prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, and conclude that 98.37% of the population could be affected. The proposed system makes it possible to accurately identify the target population for serological IgG antibody tests in the work field, as well as those affected by special income replacement measures due to lockdown being maintained over a longer period.

How will the main risk factors contribute to the burden of non-communicable diseases under different scenarios by 2050? A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The future burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) depends on numerous factors such as population ageing, evolution of societal trends, behavioural and physiological risk factors of individuals (e.g. smoking, alcohol use, obesity, physical inactivity, and hypertension). This study aims to assess the burden of NCDs in Europe by 2050 under alternative scenarios. METHODS: This study combines qualitative and quantitative forecasting techniques to examine how population health in Europe may evolve from 2015 to 2050, taking into account future societal trends. Four scenarios were developed (one business-as-usual scenario, two response scenarios and one pessimistic scenario) and assessed against 'best' and 'worst'-case scenarios. This study provides quantitative estimates of both diseases and mortality outcomes, using a microsimulation model incorporating international survey data. FINDINGS: Each scenario is associated with a different risk factor prevalence rate across Europe during the period 2015-2050. The prevalence and incidence of NCDs consistently increase during the analysed time period, mainly driven by population ageing. In more optimistic scenarios, diseases will appear in later ages, while in the pessimistic scenarios, NCDs will impair working-age people. Life expectancy is expected to grow in all scenarios, but with differences by up to 4 years across scenarios and population groups. Premature mortality from NCDs will be reduced in more optimistic scenarios but stagnate in the worst-case scenario. INTERPRETATION: Population ageing will have a greater impact on the spread of NCDs by 2050 compared to risk factors. Nevertheless, risk factors, which are influenced by living environments, are an important factor for determining future life expectancy in Europe.

Factors Associated with Bed-Blocking at a University Hospital (Cantabria, Spain) between 2007 and 2015: A Retrospective Observational Study.

Current studies on bed-blocking or delayed discharge for non-medical reasons report important variations depending on the country or setting under study. Research on this subject is clearly important as the current system reveals major inefficiencies. Although there is some agreement on the patient-related factors that contribute to the phenomenon, such as older age or a lack of functional ability, there is greater variability regarding environmental or organizational factors. This study sought to quantify the number of cases and days inappropriately spent in hospital and identify patient characteristics and healthcare service use associated with the total length of stay. All cases of delayed discharge were studied at the hospitalization units of a general university hospital in Northern Spain between 2007 and 2015. According to regression estimates, the following characteristics were related to a longer stay: higher complexity through (Diagnosis-Related Group) DRG weight, a diagnosis that implied a lack of functional ability, surgical treatment, having to wait for a destination upon final discharge or return home. After an initial increase, a reduction in delayed discharge was observed, which was maintained for the duration of the study period. Multi-component interventions related with discharge planning can favor a reduced inefficiency with fewer unnecessary stays.